Pinnacle   -2½  -110   BET365  -2½ -110  Sportsinteraction  -2½ -110  888port  -2½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

IOWA STATE -2½ -110 over BYU

Jack Trice Stadium – Ames, IA

3:30 PM ET. The conversation here, of course, revolves around the Cougars — 7-0, undefeated, and looking every bit like the class of the Big 12. But as we’ve learned time and again, the market is fickle. If we rewind to August or early September, it was Iowa State being sold as the team to beat in this conference. They were the preseason darling, the team many expected to make a legitimate run to Arlington. Fast forward two months, and that same Iowa State team has fallen into near obscurity after back-to-back losses — one to unranked Cincinnati, and another on the road at Colorado. The Cyclones’ stock couldn’t be any lower right now.

Meanwhile, BYU has become everyone’s favorite feel-good story. The Cougars are unbeaten, they’ve covered in six of their last eight, and they’re coming off an emotional, hard-fought win against arch-rival Utah — a game in which most of the betting public was lined up against them. That win catapulted BYU further into the national spotlight and on their way to a top-10 ranking perhaps by week’s end, if they get the job done here. On paper, the Mormons look like a freight train of momentum running downhill. A ranked, undefeated team catching points against an unranked opponent that’s lost two straight. And that’s exactly where the trap is set.

Unranked favorites versus ranked underdogs are always worth a hard look. The market in said scenarios instinctively wants the ranked team and the points. But the oddsmakers know that, and they’re telling us something by hanging Iowa State as the favorite. Now, the market has gotten privy to this notion and started to follow the lead. However, when a trend heats up, its often the wrong time to buy even if the play itself is still correct. We saw that last week with Georgia Tech and Duke. The unranked Blue Devils got attention but did not deliver, and now the trend has been abandoned by a fickle market. However, the angle still has value, and that same setup repeats itself here. But the market has cooled on the “unranked favorite” angle after getting burned just once. That hesitation creates value here with the Clones.

Iowa State is still a complete team on both sides of the ball and Matt Campbell can certainly put together a game plan to get ISU over the line here. BYU meanwhile? Overvalued because they have been a commodity as of recent and all the more prone for a let-down after last week’s emotional victory in the Holy War. We’re rolling with the Cyclones.

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