Pinnacle   +125   BET365  +125  Sportsinteraction  +125  888port  +125

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Missouri +125 ML over VANDERBILT

FirstBank Stadium – Nashville, TN

3:30 PM ET. The Commodores have once again invoked what feels like the third, maybe even the fourth wave of Vandymania. Last week, the Commodores were favored at home against a ranked opponent for the first time in recent memory — perhaps in program history. And they delivered, knocking off LSU 31–24 as a 1.5-point favorite. That win vaulted Vanderbilt into the top ten for the first time ever and has since set off a new storm of rhetoric, hyperbole, and sentimentality surrounding Diego Pavia and company. The narrative is irresistible, and the market has fully bought in. But as we’ve seen before, when sentiment drives the number, that’s when the value lies on the other side.

Enter Missouri. The Tigers are being treated as an afterthought this week because of the “Vandermonium”. Despite being ranked themselves, they’re taking back a plus number, priced almost identically to what LSU was last week. That’s no coincidence. The market is once again choosing the story over the substance.

Missouri’s “fall from grace” in perception has little to do with who they actually are. Last week, they had to survive a battle at Auburn, eventually escaping 23–17 in overtime — a result that looked ugly to the public eye. Before that, they took Alabama to the brink, only to lose 27–24 after a series of self-inflicted mistakes. And before that, Missouri had been one of the most complete, efficient teams in the SEC, methodically stacking wins and building momentum. But because the Tigers’ last two games have been grinders instead of showcases, the market has cooled. Unlike Vanderbilt who continues to usurp expectation and captivate hearts.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s win over LSU — while impressive — came with context. The Commodores were in the perfect situational spot, at home, playing with nothing to lose, against a Tigers team that doesn’t know who they are. Now, Vanderbilt steps into a new role: a ranked favorite with pressure, hype, and expectations that have never been this high. Missouri meanwhile has nothing to lose though they have their own on the CFP themselves.

Missouri’s quarterback, Beau Pribula, brings the mobility and playmaking edge to stretch Vanderbilt’s defense, and the Tigers have the physicality on both sides to give the Dores headaches. Yes, Mizzou can win this game but no one wants them to. The storyline says Vanderbilt. The value says Missouri. We’ll trust the latter.

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