Pinnacle   +135   BET365  +135  Sportsinteraction  +135  888port  +135

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

FRESNO STATE +135 ML over San Diego State

Valley Children’s Stadium – Fresno, CA

3:30 PM ET. Let’s run it back. Two weeks ago, we faded Fresno State when they were spotting an underdog-friendly number as a six-point road favorite at Colorado State. We warned that there was lookahead potential for the Bulldogs, who at the time were riding high at 5–1, with this very game against San Diego State — the Battle for the Oil Can — looming on deck. Sure enough, Fresno State got ambushed in Fort Collins and was run off the field 49–21.

Now, the market is punishing them for it. A team that had won five straight before that loss suddenly has its stock in freefall, and that’s exactly where we want to buy in. The market never forgives a popular favorite that fails in spectacular fashion, and that’s what Fresno was two weeks ago — a trending side that burned tickets. But that’s where value is created.

San Diego State, meanwhile, sits at 5–1 and has covered four straight tilts. They’ve looked impressive on paper, and head-to-head, the Aztecs have owned the recent meetings, winning the last matchup 33–18 in 2023 and covering in four of the last five in the series. Add in their current form, and it’s easy for the average bettor to want to back the red-hot team against a Fresno State side that just got embarrassed. But as contrarians, that’s exactly the moment we look the other way.

This Fresno team is still good, they just had one bad outing. The Bulldogs’ offense remains one of the most efficient in the Mountain West, and now they get to face an Aztec defense that’s been punching above its weight for weeks. Combine that with a motivated locker room looking to erase the sting of that Colorado State loss, and the setup is ideal.

This isn’t about chasing form — it’s about buying low on a team that was mispriced two weeks ago. The market’s gone too far in the other direction, and we’re happy to take advantage. Fresno State outright.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v