Pinnacle   -3½   -110   BET365  -3½  -110  Sportsinteraction  -3½  -110  888port  -3½  -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

WASHINGTON -3½ over Illinois

Husky Stadium – Seattle, WA

3:30 PM ET. Illinois has somehow found its way back into the top 25, even though it’s hard to make the case that they’ve truly earned it. It feels more like a default ranking — a product of being 5–2 and sitting on a record that looks appealing on paper. Against the spread, they’re also 5–2, which only reinforces that perception. But let’s backpedal for a second and take a hard look at who the Illini have actually beaten.

Outside of the win at Duke — a game where Duke completely unraveled and beat itself — what’s the resume here? They narrowly survived USC, a middling team at best, winning on a walk-off field goal. They were blown off the field at Indiana when ranked inside the top ten, losing 63–10 in a game that exposed every flaw they have. Their other wins? Western Illinois, Western Michigan, and Purdue. That’s it. And when they finally stepped up in class against Ohio State, they were handled with ease in a 34–16 loss two weeks ago.

That's because the market has a short memory, all of that has been conveniently forgotten. What the public remembers is Washington’s lack-luster showing last week at Michigan, where the Huskies were dominated 24–7 as a short underdog with a bit of curb appeal in their back pocket. That single data point has been enough to push Washington out of the market’s good graces — and into buy-low territory. Despite being unranked, Washington is still a four-point favorite against ranked Illinois, and that tells you everything you need to know.

This is a pure zig-zag setup. Illinois’s stock remains inflated from both their ATS record this year and their late-season run last year. Washington’s stock, meanwhile, has been hammered by one bad road performance against an opponent that may sneak into the playoffs, if things fall their way. Back home in Seattle, we would be remiss to highlight that the Dawgs are a completely different team, as well. The Huskies’ defense is physical and disciplined, and quarterback DeMond Williams’s ability to extend plays will neutralize Illinois’s biggest strength — the pass rush.

The market’s perception is off. Illinois is being conceived as a legitimate ranked side, when in reality, they’ve lived off smoke and mirrors. Washington is the sharper, hungrier, and more complete team in the better situational spot. This number is short, and the setup is clear. Lay the points.

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