Pinnacle    +185     BET365  +185  Sportsinteraction  +185  888port  +185

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

UL MONROE +185 ML over Troy

Malone Stadium – Monroe, LA

3:00 PM ET. Last week, we faded Troy as a +7.5 underdog against Texas State. For nearly the entire game, that call looked golden. Troy trailed by three scores, down 21 at one point, completely outplayed and out of rhythm. Then the Bobcats hit cruise control. A late collapse, a two-point conversion, and an overtime escape turned what should’ve been a comfortable Texas State cover into a miracle Troy win. Credit the Trojans for fighting back — but make no mistake, that result masks 55 minutes of poor football.

Now, the market’s flipped. The same Troy team that was catching more than a touchdown last week is suddenly a six-point road favorite (a notorious underdog friendly number). That’s a massive swing based on a misleading final score. But often the best value on the board comes when the market overreacts to a single wild result. That’s exactly what we have here.

Meanwhile, UL Monroe returns home after two ugly road losses to Northwestern and Coastal Carolina. Those results look bad on paper, but this is a Warhawks team that’s quietly perfect at home this season. Moreover, they are an afterthought here to the unsuspecting market. But the oddsmakers have the Warhawks in their crosshairs.

The market is doubling down after backing Troy at a notorious let-down spot last week at Texas State where it should have lost and not covered, and stepping in harder after a miracle win. This is a squad that hung with Clemson in Death Valley and whose only other loss is against undefeated Memphis – the Hawks should be a snack on paper but the oddsmakers are saying otherwise. Backers are arriving two weeks too late to the Trojan party. Forget the points. We’ll take ULM outright.   

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