Pinnacle    -3 -110     BET365  -3 -110  Sportsinteraction  -3 -110  888port  -3 -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Texas State -3 over Marshall

Joan C. Edwards Stadium – Huntington, WV

3:30 PM ET. We don’t love laying points on the road — that’s not usually where the value lives. But there are exceptions and this is one of them.

Let’s start with Texas State. Last week, we were on T-State as a 7.5-point favorite and the Bobcats did everything right for three and a half quarters. They built a 21-point lead over Troy, were in full control, and looked ready to cash easily. Then came the collapse. A few mental lapses, a soft defense, and suddenly they found themselves on the wrong side of a 48–41 overtime loss — an absolute gut punch. It was the fourth straight ATS loss for a team that’s been priced like a contender but hasn’t played like one for a month. Add in the prior week’s outright loss at Arkansas State as a 13.5-point favorite, and you can see why no one wants any part of the Bobcats right now, as a road choice. And that’s precisely why we do.

When the market wants nothing to do with a team, that’s when the value appears. Everyone’s off Texas State, but take a closer look at Marshall. The Thundering Herd pulled off one of last week’s bigger surprises, blasting Old Dominion 48–24 as a 14.5-point home dog. ODU was a quiet market darling heading into that tilt, as early bettors had been cashing week in and week out with the Monarchs. Now, the market is zig-zagging back on the Herd while continuing their repulsion of the Bobcats. The line opened at -3.5 which is a favorite-friendly number but that number quickly dropped to where the Cats are spotting a field goal. However, look deeper.

If Texas State had simply closed the deal last week, and if Marshall had gotten smoked like it was supposed to, we’d be looking at a double-digit spread here. Instead, recency bias on both ends has flipped the narrative and gets us the visitors at a discount. This is the spot to “stick with it”, buy low on the Bobcats, and not look back.

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