Pinnacle    +125     BET365  +125  Sportsinteraction  +125  888port  +125

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Penn State +125 ML over Iowa

Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, IA

7:00 PM ET. Chaos creates opportunity. That’s the case in Happy Valley this week, where Penn State, once a preseason top-five team, now looks like a program in turmoil. Head coach James Franklin is out after 12 seasons, star quarterback Drew Aller is done for the year, and the Nittany Lions have dropped three straight seeing their playoff aspirations go poof. PSU has suffered back-to-back losses as 20-point favorites. On top of that, Penn State is 0–6 against the spread this season, which makes them the most unloved team in the betting market. On the surface, it looks like an easy call to fade them in Iowa City where it is hard to win. But that’s exactly why we’re taking the other side.

Let’s rewind to the summer. Before a single down was played, Penn State was listed as a 10.5-point favorite in this matchup. That number was built on roster strength, depth, and elite recruiting — and even now, those fundamentals haven’t changed much. Yes, Franklin and Aller are gone, but the roster is still loaded with NFL-caliber talent on both sides of the ball. The Nittany Lions simply haven’t played to that ceiling. This week, they get a fresh voice in longtime assistant Terry Smith — a staple of the program and someone who embodies the Penn State identity. That kind of interim bump can spark a team, especially one playing with nothing left to lose.

The market, of course, has reacted hard in the other direction. Iowa opened as a 1.5-point underdog before the line flipped all the way to the Hawkeyes spotting a field goal. That’s a near five-point swing purely on headlines and a 14-point swing overall when considering the summer price – that is value in itself.

Iowa’s brand of football doesn’t lend itself to margin, either. They play slow, conservative, field-position football, and their games often come down to one possession. It’s why the total sits at 40. To reiterate a team that was once laying double digits is now plus money on the moneyline — all due to narrative-driven overreaction. This is where you step in, hold your nose, and take the value. PSU is a must-play here, win or lose.

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