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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Florida Atlantic +21 over South Florida

Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL

7:30 PM ET. This is the definition of what we call a sandwich spot in every sense of the word. South Florida is coming off a massive, emotional win, and with a huge showdown ahead, this week’s opponent becomes the afterthought. That’s exactly the setup we get here with the Bulls laying three touchdowns against an unremarkable Florida Atlantic team — and it’s exactly the type of game where inflated favorites stumble.

Last week, USF exploded for 63 points in a primetime win over previously undefeated North Texas. They entered that game as a 2.5-point underdog and left it looking like a juggernaut, dominating from start to finish and covering for the sixth time in their last seven outings. That kind of performance tends to linger — the market sees it, remembers it, and can’t wait to bet it again. But now the Bulls find themselves as heavy favorites, expected not just to win, but to win big. And that’s where the trap lies.

Florida Atlantic isn’t flashy, but they’re quietly competent. At 3–3, they’ve shown some grit — a win over Rice as a five-point dog and a blowout of UAB where the hung 50 on the board. Nonetheless, the Owls have struggled to stand out, which is exactly why they’re being overlooked. This week, they catch South Florida at the perfect time — off that emotional high and looking straight ahead to next week’s trip to Memphis, a game with major AAC and playoff implications.

The total here tells a story too. At 73, it’s the highest of the week. That’s not a number that supports laying three full touchdowns. When you have that much projected offense, possessions will be plentiful, and both teams will have scoring opportunities — meaning the backdoor is wide open for FAU. Even if USF jumps out early, expect the Bulls to pull starters late and play it safe with Memphis looming.

All the motivational and situational angles line up: letdown + lookahead + inflated number. Florida Atlantic doesn’t need to be perfect; they just need to hang around. And against a distracted and/or disoriented favorite, we get enhanced points in our pocket to find out if they do. That is value betting in a nutshell.

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