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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Jose State +155 ML over Utah St

Maverik Stadium at Merlin Olsen Field – Logan, UT

9:00 PM ET. Last week, we faded the Aggies when they closed as a road favorite at Hawaii, thanks to the efficient market hammering Utah State because they were perfect against the spread on the season. Now, they’re back again in what looks on paper like a “bounce-back” spot — but it’s not. The Aggies are still overvalued and haven’t corrected yet. Against a San Jose State team that they’ve beaten nine straight times up until last year, and who remains 8-2 against the number in the last ten meetings, situationally, the Spartans are again positioned to be taking back an inflated price because the Aggies are a commodity here.

However, we’re not sure Utah State should be laying points to anyone right now. In their last two games, the Aggies have given up nearly 100 points combined. Their defense ranks 125th nationally in scoring defense (32.7 points per game) and 123rd in total defense (435.2 yards per game). On the islands last week, they gave up 536 yards of offense to Hawaii. In summary, this is a defense with a high pitch count and gets bailed out by its offense.

Now let’s talk about San Jose State. Yes, they’re 2-4, but they could easily be 5-1. The Spartans have lost three of their four games by a combined 10 points, and in these three losses, SJ State many would argue should have won the game easily as they were in complete control, but somehow, thanks to the variance bug, they got bit. The only time the Spartans truly got wrecked was at Texas in September — a week after the Longhorns lost to Ohio State.

Meanwhile, Utah State’s résumé remains padded by soft opponents. They’ve been beating up on nobodies and getting throttled whenever they face competent competition. Their defense is gassed but the market is still treating them like a cash cow because they’ve been a good ticket for bettors recently.

If San Jose State actually hadn’t lost games they should have won and Utah State wasn’t cashing tickets at a clip, the Spartans might actually be the chalk here. We’ll say it plainly — wrong side favored. Spartans outright.

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