Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Sam Houston St +110 over UTEP

Elliot T. Bowers Stadium – Huntsville, TX

7:00 PM ET. The market hates Sam Houston, and it’s not hard to see why. They’re 0-6, they’ve cost backers every week, and casual bettors have written them off as one of the worst teams in FBS. That’s the setup we love. Because when everyone sees a lost cause, value often hides in plain sight.

The Bearkats just covered their first spread of the year last week, losing by a bucket to Jacksonville State as a 7-point underdog. That’s progress. It’s also a sign the market might still be stuck on outdated perception. Sam Houston has faced a gauntlet to start the year — trips to Texas, Hawaii, and Western Kentucky, plus a home date with unbeaten UNLV. That’s no small ask for a transitioning program. Yet despite that, this group still shows up, still fights, and now draws a beatable opponent in a manageable spot.

Enter UTEP, a 1-5 team whose lone win came against an FCS opponent back in August. They’ve dropped four straight and haven’t beaten an FBS team as a favorite in who knows how long. The Miners are ill-suited to be spotting points to anyone, let alone on the road. They check every “false favorite” box — poor form, shaky defense, no consistency, and a travel spot that doesn’t help.

If UTEP were worth backing, the oddsmakers would make you pay for it. Instead, they’re barely asking them to lay a field goal. That speaks volumes. Sam Houston’s winless record disguises real improvement, and this is the first time all season they’ve been priced to compete on even footing. Home dog, taking money, versus a team that shouldn’t be favored — that’s a trifecta we’ll jump on every time.

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