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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Liberty -10 over New Mexico State

Williams Stadium – Lynchburg, VA

7:00 PM ET. Two weeks ago, New Mexico State blew out winless Sam Houston State under the primetime lights. The Aggies covered easily, the public cashed comfortably, and now they’re coming back for seconds. The same bettors who felt sharp two Fridays ago are lining up on the dog here, seduced by a double-digit head start against a Liberty team that hasn’t generated any buzz in over a year. That’s how traps are set.

Liberty’s 2024 season buried them in market perception. They were overvalued, underperforming, and consistently torched bettors who trusted them. The result? Nobody wants them now — which means it’s finally safe to get in. The Flames have quietly found stability, balance, and defensive discipline, but the market still prices them like that broken version from a year ago.

This game is tailor-made for an overreaction. The Aggies just looked sharp against a bottom feeder, and now they’re being rewarded with a “gift” spread that’s anything but. Liberty is the better, deeper, more complete team, and the oddsmakers know it. This isn’t a bargain on the Aggies; it’s a lure.

We’ve seen this movie before: a public darling walks into a road spot with inflated confidence and gets buried early. The price says everything — Liberty isn’t being generous here, they’re being underestimated.

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For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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