Pinnacle    +145    BET365  +145   Sportsinteraction  +145  888port  +145

Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Missouri +145 ML over Alabama

Faurot Field – Columbia, MO

12:00 PM ET. This one has been sitting on our radar for weeks, and now that the market’s hung a short number, it’s time to strike. Since joining the SEC, Missouri has never beaten Alabama. The Tide are 5–0 in the series, each win by double digits, and every one of those games featured Alabama laying heavy lumber. Not this time. The smallest spread ever in this matchup speaks volumes.

Missouri sits at 5–0, yet somehow all the chatter is about Alabama. The Tide are fresh off snapping Georgia’s 33-game win streak in Athens and followed that with a blowout win over undefeated Vanderbilt. They’ve suddenly been crowned “back,” which means the market is doing what it always does — overreacting to the shiny headline. Alabama has gone from being faded to being treated like the old juggernaut again, and that’s exactly when you need to pump the brakes. If the Tide are truly rolling again, why are they laying the shortest number they’ve ever laid to Missouri? That’s not respect for Bama. That’s respect for the Tigers.

Missouri has had two full weeks to prepare, they’re healthy, and they’ve been completely overlooked. Ahmad Hardy leads the nation in rushing, and his matchup against a soft Alabama front seven is not being priced properly. The Tigers also possess one of the most suffocating defenses in the country — they shut down Kansas’ explosive attack in the Border War and now face a Bama offense that has lived off short fields and turnovers.

Quarterback Beau Pribula is the kind of dual-threat nightmare that gives Nick Saban’s defenses trouble — mobile, improvisational, and unflappable. Combine that with a feverish home crowd and a number that screams “trap,” and this sets up as Missouri’s best chance in over a decade to take down the Tide. The market is still buying the name on the helmet. We’re buying the truth behind the number. Missouri outright.

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