Pinnacle    -7½ -110   BET365  -7½ -110   Sportsinteraction  -7½ -110 888port  -7½ -110

Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tesas St -7½ over Troy

Bobcat Stadium – San Marcos, TX

8:00 PM ET. This line is screaming at us — not whispering, not hinting — screaming. Texas State, off a straight-up loss to Arkansas State as a two-touchdown favorite, is now spotting more than a touchdown to a Troy side that just knocked off South Alabama and Buffalo outright as a dog in consecutive weeks. If that sounds off to you, it should. The market is dangling a trap, and it’s one we’re not stepping into.

The Trojans are catching +7½ here, which looks tasty on paper for a team that led Clemson 16-0 earlier this year and went toe-to-toe with Memphis. The oddsmakers know you saw that. They also know Texas State just embarrassed itself last week. It’s all perfectly crafted to lure you into taking the points. However, that’s the con.

Texas State’s loss last week wasn’t about being bad — it was about being complacent. The Bobcats put up nearly 500 yards of offense and dominated time of possession but failed to convert drives. They turned it over twice inside the 20 and missed a field goal. Meanwhile, Arkansas State scored touchdowns on 50% of its drives despite averaging 4.2 yards per play. That’s not sustainable. It’s noise, not signal.

Now, the noise has created value. Texas State is still one of the most efficient offensive units in the Sun Belt, ranking top-three in yards per play and red zone trips. They’ll be facing a Troy defense that’s been living off turnover luck (+7 margin in their last two games) and hasn’t been able to pressure the passer consistently. On the road, in this environment, regression looms large.

The market will tell you this game is evenly matched. It isn’t. The Bobcats are the more complete team, at home, off a fluky loss, and facing a public dog whose stock is at its ceiling. That’s the perfect setup for a rebound and a cover.

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