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Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Hawaii +100 over Utah State

Clarence T. Ching Athletic Complex – Honolulu, HI

11:59 PM ET. The Aggies enter Week 7 as one of the last undefeated ATS teams in the nation at 5-0, and that’s exactly why they’re overvalued. The market has pushed this number from Hawaii -1½ to Utah State -1½ purely on streak-chasing steam, not substance.

Let’s break that run down. Utah State covered double digits against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M — both SEC schools with zero interest in those matchups — and then beat up on McNeese, UTEP, and Air Force. Nothing in that résumé justifies laying a price tag on the road in Honolulu, where visiting teams historically wilt. This trip is brutal — five time zones, overnight travel, and a team that’s feeling itself a little too much. Hawaii, meanwhile, isn’t some walkover.

They opened as the favorite for a reason. The Warriors’ offense is quietly improving each week, they’ve cleaned up their turnover issues, and they play with real juice at home. The market’s forgotten all that because Utah State’s ticket record looks shiny. But again, this isn’t about form; it’s about context and value.

If the Aggies were 2-3 ATS instead of 5-0, this line would look exactly like the opener — Hawaii favored by a field goal. That tells you everything. The only thing that’s changed is perception, not reality.

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