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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Mid Tennessee St +110 over Missouri State

Floyd Stadium – Murfreesboro, TN

7:30 PM ET. Sometimes, you just have to take a long look at a line and ask — what are we missing? Missouri State spotting a tag on the road? That alone should raise eyebrows. The market has decided the Bears are the superior side based on a couple of surface-level results, but scratch beneath that and this number starts to smell.

Missouri State has played two road games all season. As a 35½-point dog at USC, they got annihilated 73–13 and failed to even come close to sniffing a cover. The following week, they caught Marshall in a perfect letdown spot — right after the Herd’s trip to Georgia — and managed a fluky outright win. That single data point has inflated the Bears’ stock beyond reason. Since then, they’ve gone 1–2 at home, the lone win coming against FCS UT-Martin. Laying points on the road now represents a role this program is nowhere near suited for.

Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee’s résumé isn’t pretty either, and that’s exactly why this is a buy-low opportunity. The Blue Raiders’ stock is buried. They’ve won just two of their last ten and failed to cover in eight of those, which makes them the kind of team the market loves to fade. Yet the oddsmakers could have made them a field-goal dog here — and didn’t. That omission says plenty.

Floyd Stadium has been a graveyard for inflated road favorites over the years, and MTSU walks in tonight with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Missouri State walks in with expectation — a role they’ve failed in repeatedly. This line is bait, plain and simple. Don't bite.

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