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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

LLINOIS +200 ML over USC

Memorial Stadium – Champaign, IL

12:00 PM ET. Recency bias is a powerful thing. Last week Illinois was steamrolled by Indiana 63–10, one of the ugliest losses you’ll see from a ranked team. They weren’t just bad, they were unwatchable. Losses like that leave a scar in the betting market—teams aren’t just dismissed, they’re written off entirely. That’s when value starts to form.

Enter USC, the perfect opposite. The Trojans are the perennial public side. Blue-blood brand, high-flying offense, flash, and sizzle. You don’t need to sell USC; the market does it for you. And so here they are, laying nearly a converted touchdown on the road in Champaign, despite being ranked right next to Illinois in the polls.

Oddsmakers could’ve shaded this line to favor USC lightly and still gotten Trojan money. Instead, they’re asking you to lay over a field goal with a West Coast team in a noon kick in the Midwest. That’s not a gift—it’s bait.

Illinois’ profile matches up well too. They play slow, they run the ball, they defend physically. That’s exactly the formula to frustrate USC’s defense, which has already leaked points to Michigan State and Georgia Southern. The Illini don’t need to be great to cover here—they just need to be competent, and that’s enough against a Trojans team being priced at a premium.

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