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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

South Carolina +10 over Missouri

Memorial Stadium / Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri

7:00 PM EST. We get it—Mizzou is the new shiny object. They crushed Louisiana last week, they’ve climbed the polls, and everyone from Columbia to Columbia is ready to crown Eli Drinkwitz the second coming of Spurrier. Before we all start RSVPing to the Tigers' New Year’s Six bowl party, let’s hit the brakes. Yes, Missouri’s been winning and covering but the market is now pricing them like a juggernaut—and that’s where we start licking our chops. You want to give us double digits with a very decent and capable SEC team? We’ll take it and run.

South Carolina looked like a mess against Vanderbilt last week, especially after losing LaNorris Sellers mid-game but let’s not confuse one disastrous half with a full-blown collapse. This same Gamecocks’ team was ranked in the preseason for a reason. They’ve got the athletes, they’ve got a defense, and they’ve got a coach in Shane Beamer who knows how to get a response out of his locker room. We’re not here to make excuses, but when your starting quarterback gets knocked out and you're already banged up, weird things happen. Weird doesn’t equal worthless. It just means value and it’s worth noting that LaNorris Sellers has been cleared to play this week.

Now look at the setup for Mizzou. This is their fourth straight home game. They're fat, happy, and getting a little too comfortable. This spread is inflated not because South Carolina is that bad, but because the market is that reactionary. Missouri has beaten up on a bunch of teams they’re supposed to beat. Meanwhile, South Carolina has already played tougher competition and is now being treated like a bottom-feeder. That’s a disconnect. We love disconnects. They open windows of opportunity—and this price is a big one.

So here we are: a buy-low spot on a decent team coming off an embarrassing showing, against a team that’s been cashing tickets and is due for a market correction. Missouri’s stock is peaking. South Carolina’s stock just got dumped but this isn’t Wall Street—it’s the SEC. The Gamecocks aren’t as bad as last week’s box score suggests, and Missouri isn’t as bulletproof as the books are pricing them. Give us the points  and let the market panic while we cash tickets.  

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