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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Western Michigan +14 over Toledo

Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI

3:30 PM EST. If you’re betting based on the scoreboard from last week, then Toledo might look like Alabama. A 60–0 win tends to hypnotize the market, especially when it follows another blowout the week before but let’s take a breath here. Toledo’s latest beatdown came against Morgan State, an FCS squad whose defensive front would get pushed around by a high school team from Texas. The week before that? A comfortable win over UMass—a team perennially in the bottom five of the FBS. It’s easy to pile up style points against tomato cans, but when it comes to putting a true number on this Rockets team, the market is inflating them based on fantasy, not fundamentals.

Now they’re laying two touchdowns on the road to a conference rival that has played a much tougher schedule? That’s a stretch. Western Michigan hasn’t looked pretty, but they’ve faced Michigan State, Illinois, and a quality North Texas squad in succession. That’s three legitimate programs. Their offense has sputtered, sure, but that’s what happens when you run into Big Ten defenses with an unproven quarterback and a predictable playbook. There’s a world of difference between failing to score on Illinois and failing to score on Toledo, and this spread is acting like it’s all the same. It’s not.

Situationally, this is a dangerous spot for the Rockets. Coming off a no-sweat 60-point blowout against a non-conference cupcake, it’s human nature for a team to feel a little full of itself—especially heading into MAC play. But this isn’t a video game. This is a physical, gritty road trip to Kalamazoo, where the Broncos have quietly covered the number in three straight as a home underdog. Western may not be a polished product, but they’re not soft, and they’ve been hit in the mouth by bigger opponents all month. That experience matters more than putting up video game numbers on Morgan State.

We’re not saying Western wins outright (though don’t rule it out), but this line is flat-out disrespectful. The idea that Toledo deserves to be favored by two full touchdowns on the road after wins over UMass and Morgan State is a textbook overreaction. This isn’t a bet on Western Michigan’s offensive prowess—it’s a bet on regression hitting Toledo like a left hook. Expect the Broncos to drag this game into the mud and make Toledo earn every yard. Take the generous cushion and look for Western to come in under the number

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