Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Oklahoma State +15 over Texas
Big 12 Conference Championship
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
12:00 PM EST. As the talking heads hypothesize and forecast potential College Football Playoff (CFP) scenarios, few if any teams have been talked about more than Texas. That’s because the Longhorns find themselves in a very unique position: they own one of, if not the best win this season but may not qualify for the CFP. In early September the ‘Horns ventured out to Tuscaloosa, Alabama and handed the Crimson Tide a double-digit loss, which has to be classed as a benchmark victory. Since then, Texas has all but one game against arch-rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry but the Longhorns were seconds away from a winning that one too. Should Texas win the Big 12 and finish 12-1, the prevailing question is whether or not the Longhorns will be “boxed out” of the College Football Playoff despite such an illustrious résumé? That type of rhetoric and language sets the stage for said team to suffer a scare or even get tripped up, therefore, this is not good a place to be spotting this type of wood.
Oklahoma State very quietly has had one of its most remarkable campaigns under Mike Gundy, as the turnaround has been transformative. The Cowboys looked dead in the water when they were getting roasted in Stillwater by the visiting South Alabama Jaguars in a 33-7 trampling. That result did not age well either, as South Alabama barely qualified for a bowl game by going 6-6 on the year in the Sun Belt Conference. However, the Pokes would not give up on their season but instead ran through a plethora of ranked Big 12 opponents and dispatched them all. The list includes: Kansas State (now ranked in the Top 25), Kansas (ranked 23 at the time of game), and Oklahoma who was ranked in the top-10 when Bedlam was played.
Since starting the season 2-2, the Cowboys have gone 7-1 but their still not getting the respect they deserve because said loss was so hideous. The 45-3 trampling at the hands of a 5-5 UCF in the week after an emotional win against Oklahoma also lowers their market credibility. Most recently, Oklahoma State had to survive double overtime to get past a BYU team who will not be going bowling in 2023. By contrast, Texas comes into this game on the heels of a 57-7 blowout win against Texas Tech. When we factor recency bias, brand prestige (Texas being College Football Royalty), and some of the thought material surrounding the Longhorns lofty possibilities, the curb appeal of Texas is extraordinary and also renders one to buy high on the Longhorns.
Oklahoma State opened at +13½ but the inefficient market very quickly jumped all over the Longhorns and drove the figure to what you see here. A bet on the Longhorns now is not only buying high but also playing them at a bad number, none of which are “rolling with the best of it”. We also have to wonder how the Cowboys feel about being a 15-point underdog. It’s highly insulting and massively motivating and we can almost promise you that a big piece of bristol board will be hanging in the locker room with the number 15 on it. Adding in inflated points on top of everything else makes Okie State an underdog that ticks all the boxes.
Oklahoma State +15 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)