Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +23½ -107 BET365 +23½ -110 Sportsinteraction +23½ -110 888Sport +23½ -110 

Colorado State +23½ over Colorado

Folsom Field – Boulder, CO

Streaming: ESPN

10:00 PM EST. We can reiterate everything we said about the Buffaloes and the “Prime-mania” that has descended not only upon Boulder but the entire college football world but at this point that would require a novel unto itself. Instead, we’ll summarize by stating that in the last two weeks, Colorado came into the college football season as one of the biggest storylines and has emerged as the national headline after Coach Prime and company upset a ranked TCU in Fort Worth as a 20½-point dog and then crushed the number again last week, thumping Nebraska 36-14, while only spotting a mere three points. Throughout, the Buffs have garnered more wagers and action from the betting public than almist every NFL team. The books have been taking a huge beating from CU and the chain of events has been nothing short of an anomaly. Nevertheless, we are going to “stick with it” because if one was paying a premium last week to back Colorado when their stock was already in orbit, the premium is even greater now that their stock is no longer in orbit but perhaps in another galaxy.

In the span of two weeks, Colorado, a 1-11 team in 2022 went from a 20½-point underdog to a 23½-point favorite. Normally, we like to look at such swings over the course of one week to detect an overreaction but in this scenario, the two-week chronology tells a better story. The point swing in total is 44 points. This in itself gets our attention in our quest for value but when we consider the situational aspects of this contest, the prospect of taking back inflated points upon inflated points with the visitor are that much sweeter.

Last week, fans stormed the field after Colorado completed their thrashing of rival Nebraska in Boulder. The game was nationally televised on FOX and covered by their Big Noon Kickoff. This week, Big Noon Kickoff is staying in Boulder and College Gameday is also coming to town. Basically, every preeminent college football platform is setting up shop in Primetown and has made the Rocky Mountain Showdown nothing short of a spectacle. With all the bright lights now solely on Boulder, the weight of the world will truly be on Buffalo’s shoulders. 

Enter the Colorado State Rams, an arch-rival of Colorado. The Rams have not beat their intra-state adversary since 2014 and we are certain they are tired of hearing about it. Times that by 1000 here. Colorado State is being treated like the Washington Generals here. In case you’re unaware, the Generals are an American basketball team that plays exhibition games against the Harlem Globetrotters. They are paid to lose. Tonight, the Rams are an afterthought. Moreover, there will not be distractions for the Rams heading into this game, nor any sort of pressure to fall upon them, as they are playing with house money here. Either the Rams will lose like they are supposed to and the legend of Coach Prime makes its way to Eugene, Oregon with a showdown with the likely-undefeated Ducks or the Rams can give the Buffs a scare or maybe even do the unthinkable. 

We can write all day about this one, but to keep it succinct, yes, a showdown with Oregon is on deck. Remember, these are kids and that game with the Ducks next week will be their biggest moment ever. That creates this lookahead spot or should Colorado get ahead big, it opens the backdoor in the event Coach Prime pulls his starters to preserve them for next week’s duel. Furthermore, that game against Nebraska last week wasn’t as lopsided as the score suggests. Nebraska was down 13-7 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter before the floodgates opened. The Cornhuskers probably should have had a lead at the half. 

Early lines have Oregon spotting more than two TD’s against Colorado this week. In the unlikely event that Colorado crushed Colorado State, you can be damn sure that we’ll be playing the Ducks at a deflated number next week. First things first, however, as the Rams are taking back an insanely inflated price. The Rams will come in here highly, highly motivated and it’s not like they can’t put up points, as they scored 24 points on #21 Washington State in their season opener (the only game they have played thus far) but gave up 50. The Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Perhaps most importantly, Colorado State was taking back just eight points against Washington State (a ranked team) and now they’re taking back almost three times that in one the biggest overreactions games you will ever see. If you make one bet today, this should be it.

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