Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +9½ -106 BET365 +9½-110 Sportsinteraction +9½ -110 888Sport +9½ -110 

Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO

Streaming: CBSSN

Utah State +9 over Air Force

The Air Force Academy is spotting more than a touchdown at home Friday night and we’re going to suggest that it's way off. Who have the Falcons faced? In what might be the least revealing two-game start of any college football team this season, the Falcons soundly defeated Robert Morris (yes, they play football) in Week 1, followed by a 13-3 victory over Conference USA Conference newcomer, Sam Houston State. Friday night marks the third straight home game for Air Force, who's cruised so far thanks to solid defense and a formidable run-game, but their level of competition doesn't warrant any trust. 

Utah State, on the other hand, was immediately tested by Iowa in Week 1. We didn't hate the way they competed. The Hawkeyes are known for their class on the defensive line, but that also means their offensive line is readily tested. In spite of this, the Aggies held Iowa to a lowly 88 yards on the ground. Even better, they limited the Hawkeyes to only 2.4 yards per carry- now that's impressive. They also out-paced the Hawkeyes offensively, gaining 329 (Iowa only gained 284) total yards, and won the first down battle 19-17. 

Last week Utah State was granted a much easier opponent and found their rhythm immediately. The Aggies accumulated a staggering 78 points and 591 total yards en route to a 50-point win. Yeah, it was against a cupcake but they destroyed said cupcake while Air Force did not. The Utah State offense is riding real momentum into this game, and their defense has gained legitimate confidence the last two weeks.

The Air Force defense is an above average unit, particularly in the Mountain West, and they have a group of returning starters that make life difficult for opposing offenses but Utah State shredded them last year and they might shred them again this year. Air Force will eventually pay the price for scheduling early games against cupcakes and that price will likely come due here in this inflated number they are being asked to spot.

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