Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Baylor +7 over Utah

McLane Stadium – Waco, TX

12:00 PM EST. Last week in the pandemonium that is Week One, the Baylor Bears suffered the largest upset from a point-spread perspective. As a 27½-point choice in Waco, Baylor was defeated outright by Texas State in a 42-31 defeat where the Bobcats were characterized as “outplaying” the Bears. A Power Five opponent getting outplayed on its own soil by a Sun Belt outfit that went 4-8 in 2022 is going to cause an overreaction and we’re on it.

On the flipside, the Utes made quite an impression on the market, as they were the more physical team against the visiting Florida Gators, a team that opened as high as 9½-point pup in the summer but closed as low as a 4½-point pooch at kick-off; the Utes would win by 13. The Utes were heavily faded, thus, the market had great interest in the result, which in turn created this zig-zag on the Utes, accentuated by the fact that Utah’s win was a primetime, midweek game that had national attention.

Utah opened as a 5½-point favorite here but has been bet up to the price you see here. The market’s evaluation of both sides heading into this tilt provides us with an opportunity to take back inflated points and that’s our ultimate goal. We can excuse Baylor for last week’s debacle but the market cannot. With a top-15 outfit like Utah coming to town, it’s likely that Baylor was looking ahead to this match-up, as it’s a prime opportunity for Baylor to position itself back into the national spotlight, after ghosting on those that pegged them to repeat as Big 12 Champ in 2022.

One could easily infer that Baylor was looking to get Texas State over and done with and brought a C-game to Waco thinking it could coast by Texas State and that came back to haunt them. We touched upon the peril that comes with laying the amount of points posted with the Bears last week given the spot they were in. Now we are presented with an opportunity to take advantage of all the mechanics in play, and back the Bears taking back some incredibly inflated points. You might have to go back five years to find the last time Baylor was being offered a converted TD in its own barn. This is an absolute overlay.

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