Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Georgia St. -3 over Connecticut
Center Parc Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Streaming: ESPN +
7:00 PM EST. This business is a what have you done for me lately-sort of enterprise and this scenario typifies such an idiom. UConn’s market presence has been quite strong as of recent. The Huskies were one of 2022’s most pleasant surprises. They have been cashing tickets at a rapid pace as of late, as they have covered eight of their last 10 against the spread. Last week, the Huskies opened as a 15½-point pup but that price dropped to 14½ by kickoff. UConn would cover again when they fell to N.C. State 24-14. UConn also found itself inside State territory on their final two drives but did not manage to come away with any points.
Connecticut already had a heightened market presence and they left the betting market with a good taste in its mouth after cashing another ticket against a team that lived in the Top 25 for all of 2022 (N.C. State). In its follow-up this week at Georgia State, the Huskies opened as a 4½-point dog but it has been hammered down to the price you see here.
Last week, Georgia State was taken the distance as an 18-point favorite by FCS outfit Rhode Island in their own stead. The Rams hung tough with the Panthers throughout the contest. Georgia State led by 14 points early in the second quarter but the Rams would resurge and put up 21 unanswered to where they took a 28-21 lead in the second half of play. State would respond with 21 unanswered of their own but Rhode Island would not go away and respond quickly after G-State took a 42-28 lead with a score to draw the margin back to seven. The game ultimately was settled when Georgia State went for it on 4th and 1 on its own 40-yard line and converted by the nose of the football to prevent Rhode Island getting a shot at a final drive. Two games, two results, two overreactions and we have the setup to be spotting deflated points.
It is worth noting that the Huskies caught the Wolf Pack in a lookahead spot, as NC State is hosting Notre Dame this week in Raleigh. A game against the Irish is a very big deal. N.C, State had its eyes on the showdown with the Irish and brought its C-game to Raleigh when they hosted Connecticut. It is also quite possible that Georgia State overlooked Rhode Island. This game ticks a lot of the boxes we look for in our approach to finding the best value.
Georgia St. -3 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)