Posted at 8:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +6½ -106  BET365 +6½ -110 Sportsinteraction +6½ -110 888Sport +6½ -110

South Alabama +6½ over Tulane

Yulman Stadium – New Orleans, LA

Streaming: ESPNU

8:00 PM EST. The Green Wave were one of the biggest surprises of 2022 and the most profitable outfit from a betting perspective, as they went 12-2 against the spread. As a result, Tulane is in the linesmaker’s crosshairs here, as would be the case when a team cashes in like a madman. It is almost a certainty that the Green Wave are overvalued here, even if the price looks affable. However, it doesn’t stop there.

The market credibility of both sides are also at different echelons. Tulane left an impression with the market after it pulled off a stunning rally and defeated USC 46-45 in the Cotton Bowl to cap off their 2022-23 campaign, which featured a win over the Big 12 Champion Kansas State and the aforementioned broken slot machine gambit that Tulane stole from The Twilight Zone. With the engineer of the storied Tulane comeback under center in quarterback Mike Pratt, the Wave return with a top-25 ranking along with high expectations. With all the hype, we must question why Tulane is spotting less than a converted touchdown to this unranked and unrecognizable program in the first week of the year.

South Alabama returns 20 starters, including a 1000-yard rusher in La’Damian Webb. However, South Alabama got its doors blown off in the New Orleans Bowl when it was rolled 44-23 by Western Kentucky.

Indeed Michael Pratt returns at quarterback, but the Green Wave lost stud running back Tyjae Spears to the NFL. Spears was instrumental in drawing the defense toward the line of scrimmage, allowing Pratt to open things up over-the-top in the passing game. Tulane's running back room does not have much returning experience, so we'll see who steps up to fill Spears' shoes. Tulane's defense returns eight starters from a year ago, but lost its top-five tacklers from last season. Tulane enters the year as the favorite to repeat in the AAC. The market is unaware of how dangerous South Alabama is but the oddsmakers are not.

The Jaguars were a couple plays away from competing for a Sun Belt title last season. Nearly the entire Jaguars' offense returns on a team that won 10 games last season. Carter Bradley returns at quarterback, and South Alabama has (and we mean this in a complimentary way) one of the best no-name defenses in the country. They don't have many studs. They don't have many high-ranking recruits. But they have done a fantastic job of coming together as a unit. The Sun Belt is quickly becoming a very strong league, and for the Jaguars to win 10 games last season says a lot about where this program is heading. Incidentally, South Alabama finished last season with a 7-1 conference record. The Jags won 10 games despite never winning more than six in any one year previously. South Alabama’s only other loss in the regular season was a one-point loss at UCLA in September where the Bruins were forced to kick a field goal to escape with a 32-31 thriller.

Man, we are very tempted to play South Alabama on the money line. For those so inclined, a couple of money line parlays with South Alabama is not a bad idea. Tulane’s ticket cashing party lasted almost all of last year so don’t get caught being late to the party and spot inflated points with a team that is in real danger of losing outright. Take the points with a team that is way under the national radar.

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