Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Arkansas +153 over LSU
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium – Fayetteville, AR
12:00 PM EST. Buy low, sell high is what we preach and when an occasion manifests in which we can do just that, we are keen to move in. This is perhaps one of the most quintessential buy-low, sell-high opportunities we may encounter all year. There is a lot of meat on the bone to chew here, so we’ll dive right in.
Let us first begin with the depleted stock of the Arkansas Razorbacks. Once upon a time, the Hogs were considered a threat to Alabama’s dominance in the SEC West. The Razorbacks were as high as the top-10 this season and despite all of the rhetoric, Arkansas has not lived up to expectations, as they have already lost four games this year. If Texas A&M had not tumbled from grace with all the hype surrounding its program, perhaps the Hogs would be considered one of 2022’s greatest underachievers. Arkansas’ stock is still in the doldrums, as it was upset at home last week as a 14½-point favorite to Liberty. Verily, the Flames were a ranked outfit coming into the contest but Arkansas was expected to win handily.
The market however took the points with the ranked opponent and despite every red flag that comes with such a wager, they were rewarded with a rocking chair win. Taking back less than a converted field goal against the now #7 LSU Tigers, it looks like easy money fading the Hogs here before we even factor in the present market credibility of the Bayou Bengals. However, we see the price posted as a huge warning side to fade Arkansas with caution.
LSU perhaps fired the shot heard round the world last week when it unofficially officially ended Alabama’s season with a two-point conversion that sent the Tide packing with a fatal second loss. As a result of that outcome, LSU now sits in the driver seat, as it will go to Atlanta to play for the SEC Championship if it wins here. When we combine the gravity of LSU’s recent victory with the “must-win” angle in play combined with Arkansas’ abysmal showing last week, we get an opportunity to take advantage of an enormous market overreaction that is banking on one week of results. Arkansas, by comparison to Alabama, looks like easy pickin’s for the Tigers but the oddsmakers are implying that the Tigers are fool’s gold and in line for a huge letdown. Hogs outright is the call.
Arkansas +153 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.06)