Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Texas -7 over TCU
Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, TX
7:30 PM EST. We’ll keep this one short and simple. The #4 ranked Texas Christian University Horned Frogs who are undefeated at 9-0, opened up by taking back a converted touchdown plus the hook (-7½) against a three-loss Texas team that was unranked up until last week when it defeated #13 Kansas State. When does an undefeated top-five team take back points of this quantity? Plain and short, when it is a sucker bet (see Tennessee last week taking back 9).
In addition to their illustrious ranking and undefeated record, TCU has also been cashing like a madman in 2022. The Frogs are 7-1-1 against the number. Every week, when a letdown is expected, the Frogs find a way to not only continue to win but cover while they do so. One of our top strategies is “arriving late to the betting party”, and though the Frogs continue to cash, the great equalizer is going to hit them over the head with a lead bat very soon. Those jumping on TCU now see this as a golden ticket as they are getting a top-five undefeated team under the guise that even if TCU loses by a touchdown, they will still cover.
We can articulate that playing into this favorite-friendly number is not a long-term winning proposition, we will continue by arguing that with all considerations made, TCU is 100% overvalued from greening up every week not only in this season but also in this series. You see, the Horned Frogs are 6-2 against the number in their last eight against Texas. Such trends will only add more luster to TCU but we’ll reiterate that these useless trends make the Horned Frogs even more enticing to a market that doesn’t know any better. They actually believe that a game played four years ago can impact the outcome of this one when not one single player is the same. If anything, we could argue that the Frogs could easily be a double-digit pup in this spot.
To that point, this is only the second occasion that the Frogs are an underdog this season. The first? A five-point pup against Oklahoma when the Horned Frogs went on to smash OU in a 55-24 romp. However, that result hasn’t aged all too well, as the Sooners lost four games already this year. Now in their second role as the pup, the Super Frogs are taking back even more points here long after they have emerged on the national radar and in the bookmaker’s crosshairs.
Nevertheless, the efficient market will insist the Horned Frogs are a diamond in the rough and just as we anticipated, this line has already dropped to -7. As for the Longhorns, they are a deceptive three-loss outfit. Texas could be undefeated as quick as TCU is, as their three losses this year were all settled in the final minutes of play against then #1 Alabama, in overtime at rival Texas Tech, and at then #11 Oklahoma State. In each of those games, the ‘Horns took a lead into the fourth quarter and in each of these contests they could have won as quickly as they lost.
Meanwhile, TCU overcame a 17-point deficit against Oklahoma State and an 18-point deficit against Kansas State and somehow won. The Frogs could have already lost twice this season, at minimum, and the initial favorite-friendly figure posted next to Texas’ name is a direct indication of the oddsmakers’ consideration for all of these variables. Furthermore, it demonstrates their level of respect for the Longhorns and their reluctance to buy into TCU’s ranking or record. We’ll attempt to take advantage of the underlay.
Texas -7 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)