Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.
Georgia State +115 @ Southern Miss
M.M Roberts Stadium – Hattiesburg, MS
3:00 PM EST. There are no friends in this business and as such, a team that we will back adamantly in one week could end up being a fade target in their follow-up. Such is life for the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles.
Last week, Southern Miss excelled in an unusual role. The Golden Eagles were in a Thursday night primetime game playing host to Louisiana-Lafayette and they hammered the Ragin’ Cajuns 39-24. The Eagles were taking back less than a field goal at kickoff and the market was smothering the Cajuns who looked like a slice of pie laying 2½ points to the hosts. USM’s dominance would be on display vividly, as the Eagles jumped out to a 20-5 lead and never looked back. Now the market is zig-zagging back on the Golden Eagles after last week’s impressive showing in prime time.
We write it time and time again in our analysis about being “late to the party” or “jumping on a ship that sailed”. This is one of these instances. In addition to last week’s impressive showing, the Golden Eagles are also 6-2 on the year against the number which means that if you bet Southern Miss today, you may cash your ticket but the more likely scenario is that you’re too late. Timing is everything. What is most ironic is that Southern Miss is spotting the very same live-dog number to their counterparts that they were taking back last week against ULL.
Georgia State steps into this contest in the perfect position to play the role of spoiler. The Falcons are just 3-5 on the year and their best win on the season on paper is a 41-33 win against a now 5-3 Georgia Southern team. Southern Miss owns a win over #19 Tulane and they took #23 Liberty to overtime before the Flames escaped in the fourth overtime period by way of a successful two-point try, yet the oddsmakers still hung less than a FG here to get behind the hosts. Thus, by playing results, this would appear to be a mismatch but the oddsmakers have taken a strong position otherwise. The pricing here suggests that USM is line for a “C-game” here, not the “A-level” material we have seen from this outfit in other iterations. G-State straight up, it is.
Georgia State +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)