Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST odds are subject to change.
UCLA @ Arizona State +11
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, AZ
10:30 PM EST. The line in this game quite simply is indiscernible and any time we see a number that appears “soft”, we can’t help but take a closer look into things. The #12 UCLA Bruins are spotting what appears to be a beatable number to an opponent who is 3-5 on the year and whose wins on the year, include Washington (a team UCLA defeated 40-32 but led by as much as 24 against), Northern Arizona (a FCS team), and Colorado (the dreg of the Pac 12 that UCLA smacked by 28 points). Quite frankly, it just doesn’t make any sense.
Then there is also the element of recency bias. Just last week, UCLA smoked Stanford 38-13 and covered a 16½-point line with ease. Stanford incidentally defeated Arizona State two weeks ago, 15-14, which makes ASU look even worse. Arizona State gave up 34 points to Colorado last week and its backers saw their ticket ripped when the Buffs came through the backdoor as a 13-point pup. There is little question that the easy cover by the Bruins combined with the point-spread by ASU is also influencing the market here. Moreover, UCLA is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two. So with all these considerations made, we ask once again: How is that the #12 team in the country whose only loss was obtained against the now #8 team in America laying a “soft” number against a team who can’t even cash a ticket against Colorado and who lost to Stanford (Stanford ffs)?!
UCLA should roll Arizona State just like Duke was supposed to roll the pathetic Boston College Eagles last night. With a total of 66, oddsmakers trust that UCLA will not be doing all the scoring here. ASU has broken the 40-mark in two of its last three outings. They were only able to eclipse 21 once in four tries preceding, so perhaps an offensive renaissance is underway in Tempe. When we consider the bailout aspect of this contest and that UCLA destroyed Stanford in this time slot last week, the propensity for the market to bailout on UCLA again will be very strong. Wait until very late to bet this game if you’re on board because we might be seeing a +13 by game time.
Arizona State +11 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)