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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

North Dakota St. +9 -106 over San Francisco

10:00 PM EST. Let's start with what this line is actually selling you. A rerun of Wednesday night. Saint Mary's hit twenty three-pointers, a school record, 64.5% from deep, 67% from the floor. The kind of shooting avalanche that would bury the 2017 Warriors, and the market watched it happen and decided a 27-win basketball team forgot how to play between Monday and Friday. North Dakota State won 27 games last season, they're the preseason pick to win the Summit League, and two nights ago they were a program. One freak shooting night in Moraga does not repeal any of that. What it does is put nine points of cushion in your pocket on a team that has absolutely nothing to lose and a head coach, Dave Richman, who spent two days telling them they played soft. Embarrassed veteran teams with a pulse do one thing in their next game, they come out swinging like the rent's due.

And look who's catching those swings. A San Francisco roster that has existed for about fifteen minutes. Fourteen newcomers. The Dons return half of one percent of last year's scoring, which is a rounding error wearing a jersey. Yes, they beat Radford on Monday, and let's be honest about what that was: 76 points on 42% shooting, 27% from three, 60% from the free-throw line, against a middling Big South guest that was never actually run out of the building. That's the offence being asked to lay nine points tonight. A freshman point guard, however talented, a 7-footer who spent two years fetching towels at Gonzaga, and a rotation full of men who needed name tags in October up against a Bison team that has played together, won together, and just spent 48 hours marinating in humiliation. Chemistry is a real thing in November, and one of these teams has it in bulk.

Then there's the fight itself, because this is where the Bison eat. In their opener they mauled Minnesota-Crookston on the glass, 41-23, with 15 offensive rebounds,  second and third chances are how underdogs strangle favourites in sleepy late-night gyms. Karl Poom, the Northern Arizona transfer, walked into that Saint Mary's buzzsaw and still produced  6-of-9 shooting, perfect from deep, the one Bison who treated the avalanche like weather. Andy Stefonowicz (18 and 7 in the opener) and Melvin Bell Jr. give Richman a backcourt that doesn't panic, and NDSU runs eleven deep, which matters in the second half of a west-coast swing when legs start negotiating. The Bison are already out here, acclimated, sleeping in California beds. This isn't a Fargo red-eye special, it's game two of a road trip with a score to settle.

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