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Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Hampshire +125 over Albany

2:00 PM EST Taking New Hampshire tonight is about buying into value at the right time. The Wildcats have dropped seven straight games, which is exactly why the market has cooled on them, but losing streaks often create opportunity when the underlying matchup is competitive. Despite their recent slide, New Hampshire has already beaten the Albany Great Danes this season, winning 56-51 in a grind-it-out conference battle. That result matters because it showed New Hampshire can control tempo and dictate defensive terms in this matchup. When a struggling team has already proven it can win the head-to-head and is now priced at a discount, that’s where situational value begins to emerge.

Albany’s statistical profile doesn’t justify strong favoritism. The Great Danes shoot a respectable percentage from the floor, but they allow 45.1% shooting defensively and give up 35.1% from three — numbers that open the door for even modest offensive improvement from New Hampshire. The Wildcats aren’t a high-powered offense, but they defend the arc well and typically keep games in the half-court, lowering overall possessions. In conference play, that style compresses scoring margins and increases volatility late. Albany has also struggled on the road within the America East and has been inconsistent closing out tight games. When two teams with similar defensive metrics meet, the edge often comes down to execution and familiarity — both of which favor the home side that already owns a win in the series.

There’s also a timing angle at play. New Hampshire is 6-6 at home and tends to compete better in its own building, while Albany has shown defensive lapses that can’t be ignored. The Wildcats’ recent record is baked into the price, but their defensive structure and rebounding give them a path to slow Albany’s perimeter attack. With both teams hovering near the bottom of the conference standings and neither possessing overwhelming offensive firepower, this projects as another close, low-possession contest. In that environment, backing the team that has already solved the matchup — and is being discounted because of a losing streak — provides the stronger value angle. New Hampshire to win outright is the sharper side tonight

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