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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Hofstra +130 over UNC Wilmington

4:00 PM EST Backing Hofstra in this matchup is about buying into value rather than being swayed by UNC Wilmington’s glossy 21-4 record. The Seahawks have been dominant at home and rank among the nation’s best at defending the three-point line, but that strength is already reflected in the number. Hofstra brings an offense that is more than capable of neutralizing that edge. The Pride shoot over 37% from beyond the arc and nearly 75% at the free-throw line, two areas that travel well in conference play. With Cruz Davis orchestrating the attack at over 21 points and nearly five assists per game, Hofstra has the kind of primary scorer who can control tempo late and manufacture points in tight stretches.

Defensively, Hofstra has been just as impressive in its own way. Ranking near the top nationally in opponent field goal percentage, the Pride consistently force tough looks and limit clean half-court execution. That matters against a UNC Wilmington team that spreads production across several double-digit scorers but doesn’t rely on one dominant go-to option. If Hofstra can keep the Seahawks out of transition and turn this into a possession-by-possession battle, their defensive efficiency gives them a legitimate path to dictate the style of play. In games where shot quality is contested on both ends, the underdog often holds more value than the rankings suggest.

From a betting perspective, this sets up as a classic market inflation spot. UNC Wilmington’s strong home record and defensive metrics are well known, but Hofstra enters on a winning streak of its own and just knocked off a quality conference opponent. The Pride have the shot-making, late-game free throw reliability, and defensive discipline to hang around — and potentially win outright. When the perceived gap between teams is larger than the statistical matchup indicates, that’s where the edge lies. Taking Hofstra offers the stronger value play in what projects to be a competitive CAA showdown.

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