Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Baylor +155 over BYU

7:00 PM EST. BYU still carries the reputation of a national contender behind elite talent, but the Cougars arrive in Waco in the middle of a clear downturn. They’ve dropped four straight games, struggled to close against top-tier competition, and have been far less reliable away from home all season. A 2–3 road record doesn’t inspire confidence, especially when paired with inconsistent free-throw shooting and defensive lapses late in games. Even with AJ Dybantsa playing at an All-America level, BYU has not been able to string together complete performances against physical Big 12 opponents, and that has turned what once looked like a strength into a liability in hostile environments.

Baylor, meanwhile, looks far better in this spot than its conference record suggests. The Bears have quietly been a different team on their home floor, where they’ve won nine of 13 games and consistently played with more energy and efficiency. While their 3–8 Big 12 record is underwhelming, many of those losses have been competitive, including a narrow three-point defeat to Iowa State in their most recent outing. Baylor’s offense has shown it can score in bunches at home, and their shooting numbers are strong enough to punish a BYU defense that has been giving up far too many quality looks during this slump. Cameron Carr’s emergence as a reliable scoring option adds balance, and Baylor’s physicality inside can test a BYU team that has been worn down by a brutal recent schedule.

From a value perspective, Baylor as a home underdog is the sharper side. The market is still pricing BYU based on its early-season ceiling rather than its current form, while Baylor’s struggles in conference play have pushed their value down. This creates an opportunity to back a motivated home team facing an opponent desperate to stop the bleeding. Baylor doesn’t need to dominate to cash this bet — they simply need to lean into their home-court edge, force BYU into half-court possessions, and capitalize on the Cougars’ recent inability to finish games. In a matchup where momentum, venue, and physical play matter more than raw talent, Baylor is well-positioned to take advantage and pull off the win outright.

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