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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Kansas Jayhawks

 

Kansas owns one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, while Iowa State’s résumé is built on a significantly softer slate. That 200+ position NCSOS gap suggests Iowa State’s efficiency metrics are overstated relative to true competition. Getting Kansas at home in what’s priced like a toss-up makes the Jayhawks undervalued in this spot. Play: Kansas +155 (Risking 2 units to win)

 

Miami Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

 

Miami’s non-conference strength of schedule ranks near the bottom nationally, inflating both their record and offensive profile. Notre Dame has been tested repeatedly against far stronger opposition, creating a major résumé gap the market hasn’t fully adjusted for. With the Irish catching points at home, the value lies with the more battle-tested team.

Play: Notre Dame +3.5 (Risking 2.2 units to win)

 

Bradley Braves @ Evansville Purple Aces

 

Bradley’s metrics are propped up by one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country. Evansville’s far stronger NCSOS suggests their underlying performance is more legitimate than recent results show. Catching points at home against an overvalued favorite creates a clear buying opportunity.

Play: Evansville +6.5 (Risking 2.2 units to win)

 

Oregon Ducks @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

 

Nebraska’s non-conference résumé ranks well below Oregon’s despite being priced as a double-digit favorite. Oregon has already faced significantly stronger competition and should be more resilient when the game tightens. With a 150+ NCSOS gap, the spread overstates Nebraska’s true edge.

Play: Oregon +10.5 (Risking 2.2 units to win)

 

Central Michigan Chippewas @ Miami RedHawks

 

Miami (OH) owns one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the nation, making their dominant record misleading. Central Michigan has faced substantially stronger opposition, which better prepares them for a road spot like this. Asking Miami to cover a large number against a more battle-tested team is a pricing mistake.

Play: Central Michigan +17.5 (Risking 2.2 units to win)

 

Air Force @ San Jose State Spartans

 

Air Force’s non-conference strength of schedule ranks near the very bottom nationally, severely inflating their efficiency profile. San José State has faced far stronger competition and owns a clear résumé edge entering this matchup. Laying single digits with the more tested home team makes San José State an underpriced favorite.

 

Play: San José State -6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win)

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