Pinnacle  +125 BET365  +125 Sportsinteraction  +125  888Sport  +125

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

MONMOUTH +125 ML over William & Mary

OceanFirst Bank Arena – West Long Branch, NJ

7:00 PM ET. At first glance, this matchup looks like another opportunity to ride a hot hand. William & Mary has been one of the most profitable teams in the country, sitting at an eye-popping 11–2 against the spread with an average cover margin north of seven points per game. That kind of profile naturally attracts attention — and money. But it also creates vulnerability. Teams that cash tickets at that rate don’t do so for long. Eventually, the market catches up, and correction follows. That process may already be underway.

The Tribe’s nine-game ATS streak snapped earlier this week with a nine-point road loss at Charleston, where they failed to come close to the number as a 3.5-point underdog. Now, William & Mary now steps into another road spot, this time as a small 2.5-point favorite — a role they’re not particularly well suited for.

Strip away the ATS glow for a moment and the matchup looks far more balanced. Three of William & Mary’s four losses this season have come away from home, and their overall performance level dips when they leave Williamsburg. Now they travel to West Long Branch to face a Monmouth team that has quietly been far more competitive than its 7–8 record suggests.

Monmouth has been a different animal on its home floor. The Hawks have already knocked off Princeton, Robert Morris and Ball State, showing a willingness to elevate when facing respected programs. They shift gears at home — exactly the kind of environment that can expose a road favorite priced more on recent betting results than true separation.

William & Mary is laying points not because they are clearly superior, but because they’ve been an ATM for bettors. If that weren’t the case, it’s hard to argue they’d be favored at all in this spot. Oddsmakers are daring the market to keep paying a premium, even as the warning signs begin to surface. The Tribe’s pricing has finally outpac.

ed reality. W&M are another scalp that the Hawks will be keen to collect. The number posted suggests they are capable of delivering. We’re backing them to do so - Hawks outright.

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