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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

EASTERN WASHINGTON +120 ML over Montana State

Reese Court – Cheney, WA

9:00 PM ET. At face value, this line makes no sense — and that’s precisely why it deserves attention. Eastern Washington enters with a 2–12 record, while Montana State arrives at 8-7, riding a four-game winning streak. Normally, that profile would demand a significant spread. Instead, the Eagles are catching only a modest plus price at home. That alone should force any to pause and ask why.

The answer lies beneath the surface. Eastern Washington’s record is misleading in the extreme. By the metrics, the Eagles have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country. They rank near the bottom nationally in KenPom’s Luck rating, 363rd overall, a reflection of repeated late-game misfortune rather than persistent poor play. Close losses, missed shots at the horn, and unfavorable variance have piled up — and that kind of bad luck rarely sustains itself over an entire season.

What often gets overlooked is who Eastern Washington has been playing. The Eagles have navigated one of the tougher schedules in college basketball, ranking 34th nationally in strength of schedule. They’ve been hardened by competition well above what they face here in the 159th ranked team in the country according to KenPom’s ratings. When a battle-tested team drops down in class, the results can shift quickly.

Montana State has also struggled mightily away from home, posting a 2–6 road record. Their recent winning streak has come largely in friendly environments, and now they’re asked to win in Cheney where Eastern Washington has won both its victories this season. The number posted is acknowledging reality, not optics or perception. Despite the stark difference in win-loss records, oddsmakers have priced this matchup as if it’s competitive — because it is. Montana State is not a road warrior, and Eastern Washington is overdue for results that reflect its level of play. All signs point to things coming full circle in Cheney tonight. Eagles straight up.

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