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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Georgia +9.5 over FLORIDA

O’Connell Center – Gainesville, FL

7:00 PM ET. Rivalry games live in their own universe, and this one is no exception. Georgia–Florida isn’t just another conference matchup — it’s a grudge that runs deep, and history has shown that form, rankings, and narratives often get tossed out the window once the ball goes up.

The market is leaning heavily into the “revenge” storyline after Georgia stunned Florida last season, ending the Gators’ long winning streak that extended to 12 games in this series despite entering that game as an unranked underdog. The Gators trailed by 16 in Athens at halftime but nearly completed a comeback, falling just short in the final minutes. Now both teams arrive with national credibility and rankings beside their names, and the assumption is that Florida will get the better of it. The spread reflects that sentiment. But the number also creates opportunity.

Georgia comes in off an emotional overtime rivalry win against Auburn, and the perception is that the Bulldogs are vulnerable. In reality, this version of Georgia is stronger, deeper, and more balanced than last year’s group — the very team that proved it could match Florida physically and psychologically. This edition of the defending national champions seems more beatable compared to last year’s bunch that cut down the nets. Yet another reason to consider the points with UGA.

In rivalry environments, margins shrink. Games slow down, possessions matter more, and effort spikes on both ends. That dynamic makes catching more multiple possessions especially appealing. Georgia doesn’t need to dominate — they simply need to do what they’ve already shown they’re capable of: defend, grind, and stay within striking distance. If Florida wins, it’s far more likely to be a knife-fight than a walkover. With the Bulldogs’ improved composition and the emotional intensity this matchup brings every year, the points hold real value. Take the Dawgs plus the cushion in a game they can absolutely win outright.   

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