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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

OHIO STATE -2.5 over Nebraska

Value City Arena – Columbus, OH

6:30 PM ET. At first glance, this looks like the classic “unranked favorite vs. undefeated darling” scenario, but the real story lies beneath the surface. Nebraska has taken on an aura of inevitability this season — the kind of team that keeps surviving coin-flip finishes and turning volatility into narrative momentum. A buzzer-beater win over Illinois as a double-digit dog, a one-point escape against Kansas State, and a razor-thin result versus Michigan State all feed the perception that the Cornhuskers simply find ways to win. But markets don’t price storylines — they take positions. And this number tells a different truth.

If Nebraska truly deserved the pedestal its record suggests, the undefeated, ranked team would not be catching points against an Ohio State squad with multiple losses. Yet oddsmakers opened the Buckeyes as the favorite and have held firm. Ohio State’s résumé may lack the shiny record, but it reveals something just as meaningful: competitive resilience. Two of the three Buckeyes’ losses came by a single point to North Carolina and a single point at Pitt. Conversely, they’ve won close games versus West Virginia and Notre Dame by that same margin. The pattern is clear — this is a team that lives comfortably in tight margins and plays to the level of its opponent. That trait matters in a game like this.

Nebraska’s run has been fueled by variance as much as execution. When every big moment breaks your way, the market eventually draws a line and dares you to sustain it. This is reflected in the line with a 14-0 team sitting inside the top 15 catching a tag. Ohio State’s physicality, balance, and experience in late-game possessions make them uniquely equipped to puncture Nebraska’s magic-carpet ride.

If the Cornhuskers were the rightful side, they’d be favored. Instead, the books are inviting Nebraska money, trusting the Buckeyes to finish the job. We’ll trust the signal, not the storyline. The oddsmakers are tipping their hand.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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