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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Harvard +25 over ST JOHN’S

Carnesecca Arena – Queens, NY

6:30 PM ET. This is one of the clearest examples of situational value on today’s board. While Harvard doesn’t jump off the page, the circumstances surrounding St. John’s make laying these many points extremely uncomfortable.

The Red Storm enter this game fresh off an emotionally draining loss to Kentucky — a victory that could have been program-defining. The Johnnies were in control at halftime and ultimately collapsed down the backstretch and fell short. Games like that linger. Coaches talk about moving on, but emotional energy isn’t reset with a switch.

Now look at what’s ahead. Georgetown is next on the schedule, an old rival showing real signs of life this season. That game carries far more importance than a non-conference matchup just before Christmas. This is the definition of a sandwich game: a highly charged loss followed by a meaningful rivalry tilt, with an unglamorous opponent wedged in between.

But Harvard is sneaky good. Not because of star power, but because of structure. The Crimson play slow, disciplined basketball. They defend exceptionally well, ranking 36th nationally in scoring defense, and they rebound with purpose perhaps even better than the Storm. That combination alone suppresses margins. Harvard has already shown they can handle a bigger stage, nearly knocking off Penn State on the road and they won’t be intimidated here, we assure you.

St. John’s meanwhile will be looking to coast, get some Christmas Ham, and deal with the Hoyas. That mindset rarely aligns with blowing out a defensively sound opponent by 25-plus points. When a disciplined and motivated underdog meets a favorite prone to be flat, the math matters more than the names. Harvard checks every box to hang around. Dig into the inflated points which the Crimson can easily come in under.  

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