Posted at 4:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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IMen's Basketball Championship - West Region - Sweet 16

crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Alabama +168 over North Carolina

Streaming: CBS

9:39 PM EST. According to KenPom, North Carolina is ranked as the ninth best team in the country while Alabama comes in at 14. North Carolina’s offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) is good for 16th in the country. Alabama is almost five points better, as the Crimson Tide come into the matchup with a 125.1 offensive efficiency, ranked fourth in the country.

However, major separation between the two can be found on the defensive end of the floor. North Carolina ranks sixth in the country defensively with a 93.1 defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) while Alabama’s defensive efficiency is ranked 101st in the country at 102.3 and that is what you are going to hear and read about the most. We also have a #1 seed v a #4 seed and the 1 seed is spotting what appears to be a beatable number. Furthermore, the Tar Heels are college basketball royalty and that, too, influences the betting public into spotting the points. Finally, North Carolina is coming off two blowout wins to get to the Sweet Sixteen, which included a blowout victory over Michigan State in the round of 32 while Alabama was tied with Grand Canyon, a team without market credibility, with three minutes left in their last game before they pulled away. In terms of recency bias, North Carolina has lots more appeal than the Tide.

We don’t break down X’s and O’s. You can read about the X’s and O’s and statistical analysis in 2 million different places and rarely does that information get you to the pay window. Indeed North Carolina can win and cover here but that’s out of our hands. What we seek is value, not predictions and in that sense, we must side with the Tide.

Oddsmakers made UNC a -3½-point choice against 9th seeded Michigan State last weekend. Forget the result because results happen and in one-game anything can happen. Truth be told, oddsmakers are not sold on the Tar Heels but now because of recency bias, oddsmakers were forced to make North Carolina a bigger favorite over #4 seed Alabama than #9 seed Michigan State. How can that be? It is rare to find such an occurrence but here we are. Oddsmakers also have the data to see where the market is leaning and we promise you that the market is not leaning Alabama here.

North Carolina is a -4½ point choice here. Take the points or swallow them if you like but we’re going with Alabama to win outright because the value on them is tremendous. This is a sharp shooting underdog that can put up 100 points on any given night against any given opponent. That makes Alabama a very dangerous pup and oddsmakers know it. Keep the points.

Sherwood

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