Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +131  BET365  +130 Sportsinteraction  +130  888Sport +130

Resch Center, Ashwaubenon, WI

Purdue Fort-Wayne +130 over Green Bay

Steaming: ESPN+

5:00 PM EST. The Mastodons of Purdue Fort Wayne (PFW) have traded wins and losses for a month, but that is a marketable improvement over the five-game losing streak they suffered in January, which greatly tarnished their 13-2 start. PFW now sits at 17-10 and for some perspective, just how far their standing in the market has fallen: when PFW hosted Green Bay way back at the end of November (in a game PFW would win 75-71), the Mastodons were an -11½-point favorite.

The Phoenix of Green Bay are one of the best stories on the mid-major level of college basketball this season, as they won just three games last season and finished ranked as the third-worst team in the country (361). However, the Phoenix have already won 17 here in 2023-24 with four games to play. This is head coach Sundance Wicks’ first season in the cheesehead capital of the world, and he has totally turned around the Phoenix by infusing a roster of new players who have bought into his ‘bring your own juice’ mantra. While there was only one direction to go, up, nobody predicted Green Bay to contend for a Horizon League title this season, as the Phoenix were pegged to be a bottom-three program once again, but as fate would have it, the Phoenix have risen and so too, as their stock.

Exceeding expectations is exciting for the players, the fans, and the program as a whole, but we are not in the business of bringing you “good stories,” at least not in the way they were likely intended. Instead, we see a “good story” like the Phoenix and see a potential opportunity to profit by fading a team that is overperforming and therefore overvalued in the market. To that point, the Phoenix have won five of their last six and eight of their last 10, and their stock is at its highest since the glory days under Brian Wardle over a decade ago. Now is the time to sell.

Situationally speaking, there is a chance that Green Bay could be caught flat-footed tonight, as they have not played in nine days. The last time the Phoenix took the court was on Valentine’s Day when they lost a heartbreaker to Northern Kentucky, 58-57. It was a hard-fought game and a hell of an effort by the Phoenix, but any positive momentum they may have taken from going toe-to-toe with the Norse has likely been lost over time in the ether. Even if the Phoenix show up with their best game after a significant layoff, the Mastodons are being discounted here, and we are backing them to win this game outright.

Sherwood

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