Posted at 6:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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North Texas +5½ over SMU

Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX

Streaming: ESPNU

2:00 PM EST. The Mustangs of SMU have been on a tear, winning three in a row against Tulane, UAB, and Rice. The wins are nice, and we aren’t going to take anything away from the Mustangs' blowout, 95-69 victory over Rice, but we are going to point out that they knocked off Tulane by just four and UAB by just three. Furthermore, prior to their current winning run, SMU lost two games in a row to Wichita and North Texas. In that game versus North Texas, the Mustangs were a small -1-point favorite, and now just two weeks later, they are spotting a much more significant price on their home court, where SMU has won seven games in a row.

The Mean Green of North Texas have been on the wrong side of some close ball games, as they are just 2-4 in games decided by three points or less, which includes recent losses to UAB (82-79) and Florida Atlantic (66-63). In their last four games, Mean Green also dropped a five-point decision to South Florida (60-55). That's three close ball games in which had a bounce or two gone the other way or an extra three-point shot dropped, North Texas could have won all three. However, they did not, and now Mean Green’s stock is down based on recent results.

North Texas is in the middle of the pack in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) at 6-4, and they are 13-9 overall. Mean Green was pegged to finish in the top five in the AAC, but they currently sit eighth. On the other hand, SMU has exceeded expectations, as they were not supposed to contend for a conference title, yet they are 7-3 in the American, and 16-7 overall. However, that record comes loaded with weak wins over Southwestern Assemblies of God (non-NCAA), Western Illinois (252), Lamar (236), UL Monroe (296), Texas A&M-Commerce (315), Houston Christian (346), Murray State (149), ECU (183), Temple (246), Tulsa (164), and Rice (224).

North Texas ranks 76th for the record, yet they are priced in a similar range to what UAB (123) +7 and Tulane (114) +8 were at SMU in the Mustangs' last two home games. North Texas is better than both of those schools and therefore we must take back the inflated point on offer here. Overlay.

Sherwood

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