Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Neville Arena, Auburn, AL

Alabama +5½ over Auburn

Steaming: ESPN2

7:00 PM EST. The Tigers of Auburn are getting the benefit of the doubt here because they are at home, where they are 11-0 this season. However, a close look shows that many of those wins at Neville Arena came against inferior competition. This includes non-conference home wins over cupcakes like Southeastern Louisiana (270), Alabama A&M (346), Alabama State (292), and Penn (207). Sure, there are some quality wins amongst them, but the Tigers have played a middling non-conference schedule that ranks 149-of-362 graded Division I programs. It’s not embarrassing per se, but it’s nowhere near the meat grinder that their biggest rivals, the Crimson Tide of Alabama, have survived.

Alabama has played the 19th toughest non-conference schedule in the nation, and when we factor in SEC play, the ‘Tide rises to the fifth toughest schedule at the highest level of college hoops. ‘Bama is 16-6, but their losses have come to quality competition in Ohio State (68), Clemson (33), then #4 Purdue, then #8 Creighton, then #4 Arizona, and then #6 Tennessee. There is not a bad loss among those, and the ‘Tide had a shot to win a couple of them, losing by just six to Purdue and eight to Creighton. ‘Bama does have a win against a ranked team, and it just so happens that it came against Auburn just two weeks ago.

In that game at Alabama, the Crimson Tide were a -4-point home favorite, but now, just 14 days later, the Tide are a +6-point pooch on the road at Auburn. That’s a significant double-digit swing that a mere change in venue simply does not justify. Sure, Auburn whacked both Ole Miss (91-77) and Vanderbilt (81-54) in the last two games, but those lopsided victories have the Tigers spotting inflated points to their biggest rivals in a game that is going to have major implications in the SEC standings. ‘Bama is 8-1 and sits atop the conference, and they already beat Auburn once, as the Tigers sit 7-2. A win here by Alabama doesn’t automatically deny the Tigers a shot at the SEC crown, but it does make life much more difficult. Of course, ‘Bama can win this game, but the inflated points are just too sweet to pass up.

Sherwood

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