Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS

Auburn -3½ over Ole Miss

Streaming: SEC Network

6:00 PM EST. Chris Beard is cooking in his first year in Oxford, as he’s led the Rebels of Ole Miss to a sparkling 13-0 home record, which has led to the Rebs developing one of the most raucous home crowds in the SEC. That crowd was electric on Tuesday night when the Rebels beat Mississippi State in front of the largest crowd ever at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion. That win was the Rebs' third in a row, as they also picked up their first SEC road win at Texas A&M and smashed Arkansas, 77-51. There is no denying that there is something special happening in Oxford, but the party has already started. The time to back the Rebs was after they were destroyed by Auburn two weeks ago, just before this three-game winning streak. Backing Ole Miss today is like buying a ticket for a train that has already left the station.

The Tigers of Auburn were a -12-point favorite in that game on January 20th, and since then, they have lost two of three (while the Rebs have won three straight). However, Auburn's losses came on the road at Mississippi State and Alabama, of which there is no shame. Furthermore, the Tigers lost to ‘Bama by four and Miss State by six. In their two non-conference defeats, the Tigers lost to Appalachian State (81) by five and Baylor (16) by six.

Recent results loom large here, as the Tigers are now just -3½-point chalk to a team they just manhandled. There is a growing perception in the market that the Tigers are frauds, but a closer look shows that they are being disrespected by the pundits and the polls. While the Tigers slid down to #16 this week from #13 last week, they are still ranked fifth in the power rankings, which is a better reflection of their true quality. Win, lose, or draw, the Tigers’ stock is down, while the Rebs are trading at their season-high, not only that they are coming off their biggest win of the season, over their biggest and most hated rivals. While we rarely spot road points in a meatgrinder of a conference like the SEC, there are exceptions to every rule, and this game checks many of our boxes. Underlay.

Sherwood

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