Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Tulane +8½ over SMU

Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX

Streaming: ESPN 2

7:00 PM EST. The Mustangs of SMU have won seven of their last 10 games, bringing their record to 13-6 while posting a 4-3 mark in American Athletic Conference (AAC) play. However, they appear to be cracking at the wrong time of the year, having lost two straight to North Texas and Wichita State. That loss to Wichita State might not look out of place on paper, as that program is often a mid-major powerhouse, but that is not the case this year, as that was the Shockers' first AAC win in eight attempts, and they may have exposed the Mustangs as frauds.

You see, expectations were modest at best for SMU this season, with the 'Stangs pegged to finish in the low-middle of the conference table. So far, the Mustangs have overachieved, but they also padded their record with weak and middling wins over teams like Southwestern Assemblies of God (non-NCAA), Western Illinois (252), Lamar (236), UL Monroe (296), Texas A&M-Commerce (315), Houston Christian (346), Murray State (149), ECU (183), Temple (246), and Tulsa (164).

On the other hand, the Green Wave of Tulane is coming off a 20-win season a year ago and had lofty expectations here in 2023-24, but they have been inconsistent, posting a 12-8 record with a 3-5 mark in AAC play. Like the Mustangs, the Green Wave has also dropped two straight games, but those losses came by a combined five points. In those games, the Wave were favored by -3½ over Charlotte and -5½ at UTSA, and now they are an +8½-point underdog tonight. For some perspective, the 49ers of Charlotte are a quality outfit, and they are 13-7, sitting atop the AAC with a 7-1 record. The double-digit swing in points from that game to this one tonight is just too much. The Green Wave has shooters, and they have the talent to go shot for shot with the Mustangs, even in Dallas. We’re going to gladly scoop up the inflated points being offered up here, but don’t be shocked if the Green Wave wins this one outright.

Sherwood

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