Florida @ Kentucky
Florida +5½ -102 over Kentucky

Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +5½ -102 BET365 +5½ -110 Sportsinteraction +5½ -110  888Sport +5½ -110

Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY

Florida +5½ over Kentucky

Streaming: ESPN

8:00 PM EST. The Gators of Florida sit at 14-6 and bring the eighth-ranked offense to contend with a Wildcat defense that their head coach, John Calipari, describes as “grind and figure it out.” That style of defense sounds good in a quote, but in reality, it is not conducive to stopping teams that can score at will, which Florida is. The Gators possess one of the most talented rosters not only in the SEC but the entire nation, with 7-foot-1 center Micah Handlogten being the easiest to spot in a crowd. Handlogten is coming off a breakout game against Georgia in which he went for 23 points and 17 rebounds in a 102-98 overtime win. That victory did come by a slim margin, but it’s worth noting that the Gators had a 13-point lead at the half, and that Georgia went nuts from beyond the arc, sinking 11 three-pointers. The Gators are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but their losses all came against ranked competition in Tennessee (#17), Ole Miss (#9), and the Wildcats of Kentucky (#10), whom they play tonight. By the way, the Gators lost that game at home to Kentucky by just a bucket, 87-85.

The Wildcats are college hoops royalty, and they come into this all-important SEC battle on a run in which they have won eight of their last 10 games. That includes a 63-57 decision over Arkansas on Saturday in which the Wildcats trailed by two at halftime. While the win was nice, it was the second game in a row the Wildcats' offense sputtered, and they posted a point total in the 60s. Furthermore, Kentucky’s defense is not up to snuff considering its high standing in the market and in the polls, as it ranks 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Not terrible, but not the defense that one would expect to have on their side when backing a top-10 team.

Kentucky is 15-4 overall, but it also feasted on many cupcakes during non-conference play, where the Wildcats played a relatively weak schedule that ranked 206 of 362 graded schools. Some of those weak wins came against the likes of Texas A&M Commerce (315), Stonehill (357), Marshall (192), Pennsylvania (194), and Illinois State (215). The Wildcats are ranked #10 in the polls, but that standing has them seated higher than they are in the power rankings, where they are slotted at #21.

To summarize, the Wildcats are overvalued, they are overrated, and they are overexposed, oh, and they play #5 Tennessee at home on Saturday. The stars are aligned for the upset here, but we’re more than happy to take back the inflated points and put them in our back pockets.



Our Pick

Florida +5½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)



Purdue Fort-Wayne +130 over Green Bay