Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +11½ -108 BET365 +11½ -110 Sportsinteraction +12 -110  888Sport +11½ -110

Resch Center, Ashwaubenon, WI

Streaming: ESPN+

Detroit Mercy +11½ over Wisc Green Bay

1:00 PM EST. Let’s get right to the meat here. Detroit Mercy is 0-21. The Titans are coming off a 16-point loss at Milwaukee, which followed a 41-point home loss to Youngstown State. Furthermore, when these two teams met in Detroit on January 4th, Green Bay won by 18. You would be hard pressed to find a team in this 362-team league whose stock is lower than the Detroit Titans’ stock is right now. It’s also worth noting that oddsmakers are acutely aware that Detroit routinely gets blown out. 

By contrast, the Phoenix of Green Bay is red-hot with eight wins in its last 10 games, not to mention nine wins against the spread over their last 10 games.  Mostly a cellar-dweller for decades, Green Bay’s stock hasn’t been this high in a very long time. This is a Green Bay team that won three games all of last year (3-29). In 21-22, they won five games (5-25). We could go on and on about how inept this program has been and now the Phoenix are on top of the Horizon standings with their stock through the roof. 

We have no clue how this game is going to play out but what we do know is that Detroit’s stock has never been this low and Green Bay’s stock has never been this high, which sets it up for us to take back a pile of inflated points. Incidentally and for what it’s worth, prior to getting smoked by Milwaukee and Youngstown State, Detroit went to double OT with Robert Morris and then lost to Northern Kentucky by just five and that’s after playing the 49th ranked non-conference Strength of Schedule in the country. Finally and perhaps most importantly, in that aforementioned game between these two in Detroit, Green Bay was -3 and now they’re 4 times that price here. That’s an overlay.

Sherwood

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