Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +107 3BET365 +100 Sportsinteraction +100  888Sport +100

Alabama +107 over Mississippi St.

Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS

Streaming: SEC Network

8:30 PM EST. There may be fewer eyes on the hoops hardwood tonight with two huge, high-profile Super Wild Card Weekend NFL playoff games, but that does not mean that there is not value to be had. This game fits that bill to a T.

First up are the Bulldogs of Mississippi State, who enter this all-important SEC battle with a tidy 12-3 record. On paper, wins are wins, and the media and market value them over all else, especially in college basketball. However, we know that not all wins carry the same value. To that point, the Bulldogs played a middling non-conference schedule that ranks just 165 out of 362 Division I schools. It’s worth noting the Bulldogs are also coming off a highly emotional and thrilling 77-72 win over #5 Tennessee on Wednesday night.

That is a tremendous, signature win, no doubt, and the Bulldogs faithful stormed the court, as it was the first top-5 win by Mississippi State in 21 years, and it's pretty much the only “real” quality “W” Miss State has gathered along the way, as many of its victories came against mid-majors like UT-Martin (#266), North Alabama (#236), Nicholls (#259), Murray State (#136), and Bethune-Cookman (#328). Oh by the way, one of Miss State’s losses came at home to #211 Southern, and when the Bulldogs played Power Six schools, they played a few quality programs (Northwestern, Rutgers, Washington State), but they did not play the elite, and in fact, lost to #128 Georgia Tech.

Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide of Alabama are 10-5, but they played a meat grinder of a schedule (18-of-362). While you won’t find ‘Bama in the top 25 proper, they rank #8 in the power rankings. There might not be a Division I team in all of college hoops, who are as talented, yet off the radar as the Tide. Alabama is battle-tested with wins over Indiana State (#58), and Oregon (#49), and their losses are all against quality competition in Ohio State (#38), Clemson (#31), Purdue (#3), Creighton (#13), and Arizona (#2). Moreover, ‘Bama would lose by just six to Purdue and three to Creighton. If you’re looking for more, the Crimson Tide waffled #62 South Carolina by 27 and #95 Liberty by 45 in two of their last three games. Alabama is so much the better side, and in no way is that reflected in this line. Wrong side favored.

Sherwood

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