Posted at 1:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +5½ -113  BET365 +5½ -110 Sportsinteraction +5½ -110 888Sport +5½ -110

Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Streaming: TBS

FAU +5½ over Tennessee

9:00 PM EST. Although we’d like to completely forget about the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament (we took a bath), we’d like to point out that one of the sportsbooks biggest liability all weekend was Duke over Tennessee. As it turned out, the sportsbooks cleaned up in that game and in that process, the market’s perception of the Vols did a 180°. This is a classic case of what we refer to as zig-zagging and it is one of the most common errors sports bettors make.

Zig zagging is betting on a team that loses and then switching gears from said team to getting behind them the next game out based on the previous game performance and result. The high majority of the market that bet against Tennessee last weekend against Duke are absolutely going to have a difficult time betting against Tennessee again. Instead, they were so impressed with the Vols that they’ll very likely bet them here, especially against a stranger like Florida Atlantic, a team that has been in this event twice in its history with the last appearance occurring in 2002.

Oddsmakers knew that the Blue Devils were vulnerable and posted a number to entice action on them and the inefficient market ate it up. Now the Vols go from facing an overvalued squad to being an overvalued squad and it’s an entirely different role. Make no mistake that the Vols shot lights out against Duke because the Blue Devils allowed them open jumpers all game or no pressure at all.

In their first tournament game this year, Tennessee opened as a 14-point favorite against 13th seeded Louisiana but closed as a 11½-point favorite. The inefficient market cashed in on ULL big time when the Vols barely scraped by in a scary 3-point victory. The market doubled down on Duke over Tennessee when the Blue Devils opened as a 2-point choice and closed at -3½. This is now the zig-zag.

The Owls beat a great Memphis team in the opening round of this event and took a step down in class when facing Cinderella (Farleigh Dickenson) in Round 2. FAU beat 8th seeded Memphis and then defeated 16-seeded Farleigh Dickenson. Tennessee beat Duke. Need we say more?

Before we sign off however, we will point out that the Owls are a problem. They’re a very good 3-point shooting team, while Teneessee’s first two opponents were not. We’re very tempted to play FAU straight up and if we were killing it, we probably would. This game is going to be a low-scoring battle between two evenly matched teams and we’re certainly not convinced and neither are the metrics that Tennessee is deserving of this price, especially with their elite point guard Zakai Zeigler on the rack. We’re calling the upset but will put the points in our pocket.

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