Nevada vs Arizona St
Nevada +121 over Arizona St

Posted at 12:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

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Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - First Four

UD Arena, Dayton, OH

Nevada +121 over Arizona St

9:10 PM EST. The Nevada Wolf Pack might be underdogs in this spot, but we’re going to trust that they’re the more likely team to advance to the Round of 64. The numbers suggest that the Wolf Pack might not be getting enough respect from sportsbooks against the Sun Devils here.

You see, both KenPom and BartTorvik both prefer Nevada over Arizona State. The former is particularly bullish, ranking the Wolf Pack 43rd compared to 68th for the Sun Devils. That’s rather significant. Both teams boast top-50 adjusted defenses, per BartTorvik, but much like the previous matchup, it's the offenses that diverge. Nevada is 77th in adjusted offensive efficiency, whereas Arizona State is just 135th. Perhaps most damning for the Sun Devils is that they rank a troubling 307th in effective field goal percentage, and that includes hitting threes at a poor clip (312th).

Nevada comes into the tournament on a three-game losing streak, so we have some recency bias working against the underdog here. That works to our benefit, as the season-long numbers suggest that the Wolf Pack should be favored.


Our Pick

Nevada +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)