Posted at 4:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -2½ -112  BET365  -2½ -110 Sportsinteraction -2½ -105 888Sport -2½ -110

NCAA Men's Basketball Championship - Midwest Region - First Four

UD Arena - Dayton, OH

Mississippi State - 2½ over Pitt

Streaming: truTV

9:10 PM EST. Let’s call this the “punishment” game for two teams that underachieved greatly in their respective conference tournaments. We'll start with the most high-profile of those failures, which would be the Bulldogs of Mississippi State, who were waffled in front of the sports wagering world on Friday night against Alabama. The Bulldogs never had a chance in that game as an 8-point underdog, losing gate-to-wire, 72-49. That was the fourth straight game that Mississippi State failed to hit pay dirt but it serves us well because we are able to take advantage of the overreaction to that high-profile thumping.

While the end result was not what the Bulldogs would have wanted, let's not forget that this was one of the hottest teams in the nation coming into that SEC tournament. Mississippi State had three really good wins over #11 TCU, Arkansas, and #25 Texas A&M. Moreover, the Bulldogs won 9 of their last 13 games, all in the meat grinder of the SEC. The same Crimson Tide team that smacked around the Bulldogs smacked around the Aggies too. There is little shame in that lopsided loss to the eventual SEC champs and the #1 team in the nation.

As for Pitt, yeah, it's a great story. The 13-win improvement over last year is impressive, and head coach Jeff Capel should be proud of his team. Pitt played a weak non-conference schedule that ranked 260 of 363, so that 13-win improvement is somewhat skewed. If the Bulldogs are going to be penalized for their poor conference tournament showing, so, too, should the Panthers. The difference between the two is that Pitt's 96-69 loss to Duke was buried on Thursday afternoon. The Panthers were totally outclassed by an overrated and overvalued Duke side. Tonight, the Panthers will be exposed by the Bulldogs for the frauds they are.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------